Space & Astronomy/Space and Astronomy (October 1993).iso/mac/TEXT/SPACEDIG/V13_1/V13_137.TXT

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Subject: SPACE Digest V13 #137

SPACE Digest                                     Volume 13 : Issue 137

Today's Topics:
        Re: Spy satellite coverage of the Gulf
           Help requested from Kidsnet mailing list
        MAJOR SOLAR FLARE ALERT (WITH VARIOUS UPDATES)
              Re: Expendable vs Shuttle

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Date:     Tue,  5 Feb 91 15:16 CDT
From: Bill Higgins-- Beam Jockey <[e-mail]>
Subject:  Re: Spy satellite coverage of the Gulf
To: [e-mail]
Original_To:  SPACE,ONEILL

If you're an Iraqi spy, please hit `n' now.

Conor O'Neill ([e-mail]) asked a whole bunch of questions about
spy satellites, including some of the Frequently Asked variety.
Fortunately, the February 4 issue of *Aviation Leak and Space
Technocracy* arrived on the very same day.

[There's a great benefit to having your own subscription to *Aviation
Week* when a shooting war starts.  I have suddenly become Mr.
Popularity around my office.  Anybody else share this experience?]

See page 24 for a detailed rundown of the U.S. reconnaissance
satellite situation.  There is a companion article on aircraft and
RPV's used for bomb-damage assessment.

>1) How many US/Allied spy satellites are likely to be targetted on
>the Gulf?

Three KH-11's (98-degree orbits), at least two and maybe three
advanced KH-11's  (57- and 65-degree orbits), and one Lacrosse radar
imager (57 degrees).

>2) How often does each one pass over a useful part of the world?

Directly over, twice daily.  With slant-viewing, possibly four passes
can see something.   On average, there is a pass every 2-4 hours in
Kuwait's sky.


>3) What sort of width can each satellite usefully 'see' as it passes?
>Can it scan the whole of this width on a single pass?

Don't know.   I'd guess that the highest-resolution instruments are
quite narrow-angle.  The total width a satellite can see is of order
hundreds of kilometers; the exact number is a "high-school
calculation" (new phrase I learned from Desert Storm briefings) if you
know the altitude.  Ask Ted Molczan.

>4) What sort of resolution?
>Can they count buildings? (Yes, it seems)
>Can they count vehicles?  (maybe?)
>Can they recognise different types of vehicles?
>Can they count men?
>Can they see an Iraqi soldier scratching his nose?

Classified, but KH-11's can probably resolve anything bigger than your
hand.  Don't know about Lacrosse... maybe several meters?

>5) Are they affected by the dark, or by cloud cover, or is much of the
>sensing done in the Infra Red?

The KH's use both optical and infrared sensors, but are probably not
much good if there's cloud cover. Lacrosse can see through clouds, and
is likely  good for spotting armor.

>6) Can they really detect missile and airplane launches,
>or is this done by AWACS?

Nope. This is done by Defense Support Program (DSP) satellites. See
*Aviation Week*, January 21, 1991, p. 60-- lots of detail there. There
are a few remarks in the Scud articles in the January 28 issue, too.
They sit in geosynchronous orbit and watch for the IR and optical
flare of a missile launch. They are designed to warn of ICBM launches,
but have been kluged to give a few minutes' warning of the smaller,
cooler Scud IRBM's.

>7) A point was made that if you knew when the satellite was due, you could
>simply hide under a bridge for 10 minutes. How true is this, and
>are the Iraqis likely to be able to determine enough orbital information
>to do this?

Yes, this would work.  In principle, the Iraqis might be able to track
the satellites optically (provided they pass over Iraq at night, or
they have satellite-tracking agents at other longitudes).  I don't
know if this is worth the trouble.  They might also be able to get the
orbital elements from our friends in Canada.  (I got some hostile
messages the last time I suggested this sort of thing.)  The
countermeasure is for USAF to move the satellites slightly at
irregular intervals, to make the problem of finding them more
difficult.

>8) Any other information which is available about spy satellites.

Optical reconnaisance: *Deep Black*, by William Burrows (Random House,
1986, there's a paperback too); the January 1991 *Scientific American*
article by Jeff Richelson; and Richelson's new book *America's Secret
Eyes in Space* (HarperBusiness, HarperCollins, 1990). Electronic
intelligence: *The Puzzle Palace*, by James Bamford; *Pine Gap*, by
Des Ball (Allen & Unwin Australia, 1988).  Sorry, no information on
UK editions of any of these.  Nor Arabic translations. (-:

You don't mention electronic intelligence, but ferret satellites were
probably very important in the early coalition successes in the Gulf.
They gather information on the location and nature of radar and radio
transmitters, and analysis of communications traffic can reveal
important details about defenses.

Anybody who wants to save this message for an FAQ collection is welcome
to it.

     O~~*           /_) ' / /   /_/ '  ,   ,  ' ,_  _           \|/
   - ~ -~~~~~~~~~~~/_) / / /   / / / (_) (_) / / / _\~~~~~~~~~~~zap!
 /       \                          (_) (_)                    / | \
 |       |     Bill Higgins   Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory
 \       /     Bitnet:     [e-mail]
   -   -       Internet:  [e-mail]
     ~         SPAN/Hepnet:      43011::HIGGINS

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Date: 5 Feb 91 20:39:08 GMT
From: eagle![e-mail]  (Ronald E. Graham)
Organization: NASA Lewis Research Center
Subject: Help requested from Kidsnet mailing list
Sender: [e-mail]
To: [e-mail]

Many teachers would like to gain access to NASA materials on-line.  Is
there anyone out there who can suggest sources?  These would include, but
not be limited to, images from spacecraft and names of folks at field
centers/contractor locations who might be interested in developing educational
materials for distribution through the net.

Contact Bob Carlitz, the Kidsnet administrator, at [e-mail]
if you can help.

RG

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Date:    Tue, 5 Feb 91 00:51:28 MST
From: [e-mail] (Cary Oler)
Subject: MAJOR SOLAR FLARE ALERT (WITH VARIOUS UPDATES)
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                        --  MAJOR SOLAR FLARE ALERT  --

                               FEBRUARY 04, 1991

                              Flare Event Summary
                           Potential Impact Forecast
                      Stratospheric Warming Alert Update
                       Geophysical Warning Cancellation
                     Short-Term Solar Terrestrial Forecast

                                    --------


MAJOR ENERGETIC EVENT SUMMARY

     Another major flare erupted from Region 6469 at 10:55 UT on 04
February.  This event was rated a class M6.8/1N flare, but was not
associated with any significant radio bursts or sweep frequency events.
The duration of this flare was 63 minutes.  It was located at a position
of S17W87 (on the western limb).

     Region 6469 has been extremely active lately, spawning four M-class
flares in the last 24 hours.  Region 6469 (just now disappearing from view
beyond the west limb) continues to show signs of decay.  This region will
likely dissipate behind the sun.

     A substantial decrease in the solar indices is expected for the next
several days, due to the rotation of the major active centers beyond the
western limb.  Solar activity over the past two weeks has been exceptional.
Although actual flare intensities never exceeded those intensities achieved
earlier in this solar cycle, the 10.7 cm solar radio flux did break records
previously held for this solar cycle.  The peak solar flux of 367 achieved
on 30 January tied with the record set on 10 November, 1978.  A great deal
of data analysis will be performed on the activity we have witnessed
over the passed two weeks to attempt to determine the effect this activity
could have on the solar cycle predictions as well as the prognostications
for potential activity as the active regions begin to return back into view
in about two weeks.


POTENTIAL TERRESTRIAL IMPACT PREDICTIONS

     This latest flare will not have any terrestrial impacts.

     Major flaring is still possible over the next 24 hours as Region 6469
rotates beyond the range of flare-detection.  However, by 06 February, the
potential for major and minor flaring will drop to about 30% for minor
flares and 10% for major flares.

     Region 6471 still maintains a large area of 3,900 million square
kilometers and remains associated with a magnetic Delta configuration, but
its abnormally quiet level of activity has resulted in practically no flare
output over the past several days.  It is slowly decaying as it edges
closer to the western limb (now at a location of S12W51 as of 05 February).
However, despite the inactivity associated with this region, it contains
the configuration capable of spawning a major energetic flare.  This region
is capable of producing a proton flare.  For this reason, the Space
Environment Services Center is continuing a condition YELLOW alert status
for potential PCA activity.  The probability for major X-class and proton
flaring is steady at about 10% over the next three days.  The probability
will drop to near 00% by 08 February accompanied by a return to a condition
GREEN alert status for potential PCA activity.  Region 6471 will rotate
beyond the west limb on 08 February, and with it, will disappear the last
active remnants of the major activity we have witnessed over the past two
weeks.

     This weeks Solar Terrestrial Forecast and Review will be postponed
in order to study the potential recurrent patterns that could take place
beginning in about two weeks.  The preliminary results will be reflected
in the STFR solar prediction chart.  Please be patient.


STRATOSPHERIC WARMING ALERT CONTINUES

     One of the only warnings which is being continued is the Stratospheric
Warming Alert, which is still in progress.  Major stratospheric warming has
occurred over the northern hemisphere since 03 January, 1991.  This warming
is associated with the seasonal breakdown of the northern polar vortex, but
is enduring much longer than originally anticipated.  The stratospheric
warming began in northern Canada, spread to parts of the U.S. and over the
north Atlantic.  It then spread into northern Europe and followed a path
over northern U.S.S.R. into Siberia.  From there, another intense warming
center formed and began spreading back toward North America.  The intense
stratospheric warming continued as the warm air spread polewards and into
northern Canada again.  Strong stratospheric warming continues at the present
time over Siberia and Greenland-Labrador regions.  There have been numerous
temperature gradient reversals since the event began.  At the present time,
lower stratospheric temperature gradients reversed between 60 degrees north
latitude and the pole.  The average zonal flow at 60 N is continuously
weakining in the whole stratosphere.  This warming is expected to continue
for a while yet.  No expectations for a return to more normal conditions are
being expressed for the near-future.  It should last throughout the next
week, and very possibly longer.


UPDATE OF PREVIOUS GEOPHYSICAL WARNINGS

     All previous geophysical warnings associated with the flare-related
geophysical effects have been cancelled.  Only the Potential Major Flare
Warning continues.

     The geomagnetic activity associated with the major proton flare of
31 January surprised most solar forecasters and associated geophysical
prediction models.  The activity began at 18:42 UT on 01 February, when an
interplanetary shock was observed by both satellite proton monitors and
ground-based magnetometers.  The shock was followed shortly by minor
storm level fluctuations over middle and most high latitudes.  However,
the storm died out much sooner than was expected and never reached
intensities which were predicted.  Activity levels never even officially
surpassed minor storm levels (the activity was neither intense enough nor
long enough to be classified as a storm).  This is strongly contradictory
to the statistics for storms caused by flares of the intensity which was
observed on 31 January.

     Radio propagation conditions never experienced the strong degradations
which were anticipated.  Likewise, auroral activity remained relatively
immature and isolated.  Storm intensification on 02 February was expected,
but again failed to materialize.  This event was an overall surprise, and
was not associated with the storming which characteristically accompanies
shocks from flares of the magnitude observed on 31 January.


SHORT-TERM SOLAR TERRESTRIAL FORECAST (PRELIMINARY)

     In order to compensate for the delay in issuing this weeks Solar
Terrestrial Forecast and Review, the following brief textual short-term
prediction has been compiled.

     Solar activity is expected to drop to low to moderate levels by 08/09
February as the last remaining major solar center (Region 6471) rotates
beyond the western limb.  Activity could be high between 05 February and
09 February, but will most likely remain moderate to low.  A risk for
major flaring will persist until Region 6471 rotates beyond the west limb
near 08 February.  Solar indices will drop quite substantially over the
next three days. The solar flux is expected to fall by as much as 60 to 70
points by 08 February and should settle at values near 165 to 185 after
09 February.  The potential for proton flaring and PCA activity will remain
near 10% until Region 6471 rotates beyond the west limb.  It will then
decline to 00% (near 08/09 February).

     The geomagnetic field will remain mostly quiet intermixed with some
isolated periods of unsettled conditions.  A large solar coronal hole is
in view stretching from the northeastern solar polar regions to the north-
western solar middle latitudes.  This hole could enhance magnetic activity
slightly over the next 24 to 72 hours.  Activity will likely remain confined
to quiet to unsettled levels despite the coronal hole.  It is still oriented
a bit too far north to have any notable impacts.  Evolutionary changes in
hole structure could increase magnetic activity over the coming week, but
at the present time, we have no reason to speculate that such changes will
occur.  Thus, we maintain a prediction of mostly quiet to unsettled levels
for the next week or two (barring any unforseen solar events which might
have terrestrial impacts).

     Auroral activity will remain predominantly dormant throughout the next
two weeks.  High latitudes will likely witness low intensity auroral glows
throughout the coming week, with possible brief bursts of moderate activity.
Middle latitudes will remain generally incapable of witnessing any auroral
activity.  And low latitudes will, of course, be unable to witness any
auroral activity unless something major happens on the sun (which is now
unlikely).

     HF radio propagation conditions are expected to remain normal to
above normal.  SID's and SWF's will not interfere with communications this
coming week (again, barring the emergence of any new active solar regions).
The frequency of occurrence of SID's/SWF's will improve notably within the
next 24 to 48 hours.  MUF's will begin declining this week from their
elevated values in response to the disappearance of the major active regions
beyond the west limb.  However, good DX should remain possible over most
locations (except over high latitudes) throughout the coming week.

     VHF propagation should be normal over all latitudes this coming week.
The probability for SID enhancements will drop substantially by 07 February.
The potential for auroral backscatter is near 00% for the middle and low
latitudes.  High latitudes don't have a much better probability, near only
10% to 15% over the coming week.

     Thanks to all of you who sent in observational reports of radio
conditions and/or auroral activity (or the lack thereof) during the last
flare impact.


**  End of Report **

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Date: 4 Feb 91 21:16:42 GMT
From: zaphod.mps.ohio-state.edu!unix.cis.pitt.edu!pitt!nss![e-mail]  (Paul Blase)
Organization: The NSS BBS, Pittsburgh PA [phone]
Subject: Re: Expendable vs Shuttle
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 HS> My personal opinion is that the rocket isn't necessary,
 HS> actually, unless we are talking about failures at extremely low
 HS> altitude. --

Check out the crew escape capsule on an FB-111.  Of course that adds
weight, which means less payload.

 HS> If the Space Shuttle was the answer,
 HS> Toronto Zoology what was the question?

How do we get people and stuff into orbit without throwing away the whole
vehicle every time? (I didn't say that it was a GOOD answer!)

--- via Silver Xpress V2.26 [NR]
--
Paul Blase - via FidoNet node 1:129/104
UUCP: ...!pitt!nss!Paul.Blase
INTERNET: [e-mail]

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End of SPACE Digest V13 #137
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